Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric naive lstm xgboost cnn
diff_of_means -1.098 -5.145 7.534 -8.937
ratio_of_sd 0.830 0.933 0.857 0.877
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.539 0.645 0.529 0.685
maximum_error 0.302 0.308 0.277 0.319
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.587 0.316 0.436 0.263
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.815 0.861 0.951 0.872
qqplot_mae 0.029 0.018 0.018 0.032
acf_mae 0.152 0.096 0.110 0.085
extremogram_mae 0.109 0.056 0.083 0.060

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric lstm xgboost naive cnn
diff_of_means -3.851 4.573 -4.781 -6.865
ratio_of_sd 0.901 0.878 0.894 0.848
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.609 0.526 0.552 0.653
maximum_error 0.314 0.270 0.316 0.319
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.240 0.387 0.378 0.186
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.819 0.901 0.792 0.852
qqplot_mae 0.027 0.019 0.028 0.040
acf_mae 0.102 0.121 0.147 0.086
extremogram_mae 0.070 0.090 0.117 0.063

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means -3.443 -4.318 5.570 -5.838
ratio_of_sd 0.920 0.901 0.890 0.866
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.609 0.551 0.533 0.657
maximum_error 0.308 0.315 0.267 0.322
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.302 0.474 0.407 0.196
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.849 0.808 0.937 0.875
qqplot_mae 0.025 0.026 0.017 0.037
acf_mae 0.101 0.154 0.117 0.082
extremogram_mae 0.074 0.124 0.094 0.063

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric lstm cnn xgboost naive
diff_of_means -10.220 -10.327 -18.592 -24.890
ratio_of_sd 0.943 0.875 0.933 0.884
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.685 0.717 0.618 0.599
maximum_error 0.335 0.315 0.285 0.295
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.244 0.176 0.340 0.442
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.809 0.821 0.740 0.655
qqplot_mae 0.023 0.034 0.037 0.053
acf_mae 0.114 0.099 0.145 0.182
extremogram_mae 0.048 0.045 0.082 0.103

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric lstm cnn naive xgboost
diff_of_means -3.176 -4.993 19.995 30.082
ratio_of_sd 0.899 0.851 0.709 0.707
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.600 0.636 0.451 0.416
maximum_error 0.286 0.336 0.281 0.248
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.333 0.294 0.569 0.461
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.926 0.953 0.995 1.204
qqplot_mae 0.025 0.035 0.037 0.041
acf_mae 0.117 0.104 0.171 0.128
extremogram_mae 0.094 0.090 0.161 0.127

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means 6.056 -6.790 -8.562 17.315
ratio_of_sd 0.787 0.941 0.891 0.784
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.511 0.648 0.676 0.487
maximum_error 0.275 0.299 0.316 0.240
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.565 0.322 0.267 0.461
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.874 0.888 0.927 1.060
qqplot_mae 0.029 0.017 0.028 0.025
acf_mae 0.154 0.097 0.086 0.108
extremogram_mae 0.106 0.048 0.056 0.078

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric lstm cnn naive xgboost
diff_of_means -2.382 -2.990 18.193 28.620
ratio_of_sd 0.902 0.849 0.734 0.728
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.601 0.634 0.465 0.427
maximum_error 0.305 0.330 0.276 0.252
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.288 0.215 0.473 0.409
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.908 0.953 0.979 1.192
qqplot_mae 0.026 0.038 0.036 0.040
acf_mae 0.103 0.081 0.153 0.109
extremogram_mae 0.084 0.062 0.135 0.106

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97